Photovoltaic cells have reached a critical period of technological transformation. Heterojunction batteries are widely regarded as one of the two promising battery technologies to replace the existing PERC batteries in the future. Recently, at the first "Solar Valley" heterojunction forum held in Taizhou, industry insiders generally believe that the large-scale industrialization of heterojunction batteries is imminent.

　　Wang Ke, an analyst at Zhongtai Securities, stated that in the module packaging stage, heterojunction batteries are slightly cheaper than the current PERC batteries. The high cost of heterojunction batteries mainly lies in the battery process stage, and the final cost of heterojunction modules is about 0.2 yuan/watt higher than that of PERC modules.

　　Wang Ke believes that from the perspective of power station revenue, heterojunction batteries already meet the conditions to replace PERC batteries.

　　According to analysis, from the perspective of power generation gain, the HJT module is 9% higher than the PERC module in terms of module power. This 9% power increase leads to a 9% increase in power station output. According to the cost transmission model, a 9% increase in output can lead to a 21% increase in module prices. Additionally, the advantages of heterojunction modules in other power generation performances create a premium space of about 0.7 yuan/watt.

　　However, considering that new technologies need to replace old technologies, most of the gains must be passed on to the power station side to motivate large-scale applications. Based on historical experience, every 10-watt increase in power corresponds to a premium of 0.1 yuan/watt. Currently, the power of 60 heterojunction modules is 30W higher than that of PERC modules, resulting in a premium of 0.3 yuan/watt, which is higher than the cost difference between heterojunction modules and PERC batteries.

　　The economic logic for the large-scale expansion of heterojunction battery modules has been established, but the large-scale launch of the entire industry still requires verification of industrial projects.

　　On December 15 of this year, the first heterojunction battery rolled off the production line at Aikang Technology's Changxing base, with a power of 24.59%. This battery comes from Aikang Technology's 220MW mass production line, indicating that Aikang's heterojunction batteries are ready for mass production.

　　"The rolling off of the heterojunction battery trial production (trial production battery cells) at Aikang's Changxing base is of symbolic significance," said Wang Ke. "This year is the inaugural year for heterojunction equipment, and next year will be the inaugural year for heterojunction batteries."

　　Aikang Technology is a rapidly expanding manufacturer of heterojunction batteries in China. After the successful trial production at Aikang's Changxing base, Aikang plans to set up 2GW of heterojunction battery lines in both Changxing, Zhejiang, and Taixing, Jiangsu, expected to be put into production in 2021.

　　Wang Ke expects that domestic heterojunction battery production capacity will reach 15GW in 2021, expand to 30GW in 2022, and reach 100GW by 2025.

　　From a technical perspective, heterojunction will be the next generation of battery technology.

　　Chen Qilin, deputy general manager of Jiejia Weichuang, stated that heterojunction batteries are the driving engine for high-efficiency batteries, and future high-efficiency battery technologies will be built entirely on the foundation of heterojunction batteries.

　　It is reported that the industry currently hopes to stabilize the mass production efficiency of heterojunction batteries at over 25%. However, to increase the efficiency to over 26%, it will require the integration of other technologies with heterojunction.

　　Yi Zhikai, director of Aikang Technology's Battery Research Institute, stated that the investment scale for a 1GW heterojunction battery production line in 2017 was about three times that of PERC batteries. In recent years, the driving force for cost reduction mainly comes from the improvement in production efficiency of imported equipment. Going forward, cost reduction will rely on the localization of equipment and materials, as well as simultaneous improvements in production efficiency.

　　Hu Hongkui, CMO of Ideal Wanlihui, stated that the key to reducing costs in heterojunction technology lies in the localization, standardization, mass production, and corresponding intelligent upgrades of equipment. In 2020, domestic localization of heterojunction equipment has been achieved, with equipment investment costs reduced to about 500 million yuan/GW, and it is expected to decrease to around 450 million yuan next year. With the improvement of equipment intelligence, the efficiency of heterojunction batteries can be enhanced, and it is expected that after the cost reduction of heterojunction equipment, the average efficiency of mass production can break through 25%.

　　Wang Ke believes that heterojunction technology will bring about significant changes in the industrial landscape. Due to the incompatibility of the processes, personnel, factories, and equipment of heterojunction batteries with existing battery lines, new enterprises will have a latecomer advantage, creating a competitive edge over companies burdened with a large amount of old battery production capacity. "Just as the PERC battery technology becoming mainstream has driven the rise of Aikang and Tongwei."